Sunday 9 June 2013

Where did it go wrong in 2012/2013?

From the mighty heights of chasing Champions League football to a relegation dogfight, 2012-2013 was most certainly not a good year for Newcastle United. So where do the mistakes lie? This first post on this blog will look at the data from the last two seasons and try to offer a valid transitive explanation for the debacle of a season.

One cannot deny that the first goal in a football game is one of the most crucial things to affect the outcome of the game. United saw a marked increase in the number of goals they conceded first in 2012-2013 compared to 2011-2012, the figure rose from 12 to 21. To be perfectly honest, falling behind in 21/38 out of games is scandalous. This figure was only topped by surprise, surprise - the three teams to go down - Wigan (25), QPR (22) and Reading (23). Moreover, of these situations of conceding first - United conceded the lead within the first 15minutes in 7 games, something which can only be surpassed by Everton and West Ham, who both achieved this feat 12 times.

A possible explanation for this is Alan Pardew's continued negative tactics over the duration of the season, I do not know what his team talks indeed consist of but I struggle to remember very many situations in which United came out of the starting blocks quickly. Part of a manager's role is to be able to motivate and fire the players up before a game, sorry Alan - you did not manage this. Of course, Pardew will point towards the weariness from playing on a Thursday night in the Europa League - I am afraid to say it, but at this level of play, that should not be an excuse. One of the few things to actually give us fans some joy this season was to be able to experience an European cup run where we got to play some fantastic continental teams such as Benfica. As it happens, Benfica play easy on the eye football which United despite having the flair players to do so; did not manage to recreate. Nonethless, we can put this to the side and look at further points.

You do not need to be a prodigy to realise that keeping clean sheets is what wins games. United kept the 3rd most in 2011/2012 - 15 clean sheets. As a fan who has grown up watching defences consisting of the likes of Bramble, Carr, Babayaro and Boumsong, this was definitely a remarkable return. A lot it was down to captain fantastic - Fabricio Coloccini, worthy of being in the PFA Team of the Year. Certainly his absence was a major contributing factor in the clean sheet total plummeting to a measily 6 in 2012/2013. His return to the team towards the end of the season saw United concede only 2 goals in the last 3 games. He just has an aura about him - instilling confidence in those around him and seemingly unperturbed with everything around him. It is little wonder that San Lorenzo are attempting just about every trick in the book to snare him. If you are reading Mike Ashley, do not sell, you must not sell. The only other player that I have seen play in the Black and White who has been close to as good as Coloccini is Jonathan Woodgate, but let us not be nostalgic. Defensively, there are some positives to note for next season. Haidara looks to have potential whilst Yanga-Mbiwa started looking like the £6.7million defensive prospect that he is towards the end of the season. However, a lot of this can be down to the increased amount of organisation in the backline owing to Coloccini. If this kid is to learn his trade, he needs this experienced head around him.

So far this post has focussed on the defensive aspect, it shall now turn towards the offensive aspect. If we look towards the data, United in 2012/2013 - were only able to win 2 games by a goal margin that was greater than 1. This figure stood at 11 in 2011/2012. What does this show? Even in the games that United did win, they were hardly one sided games. United failed to blow teams away and go for the juggler as it were. This is slightly alarming - given the nature of Premiership games and the defensive fragility that has been aforementioned, it could easily have been much worse. Again much of this can be reconciled with Pardew's negative tactics, seems to be a common trend.

I will not bore you with the detailed analysis of why United were not able to replicate the number of goals that were scored in 2011/2012. Unfortunately, Papiss Cisse was not able to replicate the form from the season before. Part of this is owing to the fact he was played on the wing for a large part of the first part of the season and part of it is owing to the the fact that he simply did not perform so well in his second season in the Premiership.

There were distinct lack of alternatives upfront as well, Hatem Ben Arfa was injured for a large part of the season and United failed to replace Demba Ba with an out and out forward. Gouffran has not been a flop, infact he has played quite well but it would be silly to see him as a replacement for Ba. He is not a traditional centre forward. That left United with the options of Ameobi and young Adam Campbell. As much as I love Ameobi, he sort of waddles around the pitch and despite being a sensational penalty taker, he does not seem to offer very much else. He still has his odd moment of brilliance, but as a substitute, he was and is largely ineffective. On the other hand, Adam Campbell was barely used but he does seem to have a spark about him, could be one to watch in the future. So what can United do? Spend the money in the summer and bring in ideally two forwards, not just one. If progression is to be made, a side should be able to turn to the bench and have players who can come on and make a difference.

So to conclude, there have been both defensive and offensive frailties. United must not lose Coloccini in the summer and must strengthen in attacking positions.





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